COVID-19 Update for April 9, 2020 – 10:45am

Canada’s top public health officials, Dr. Theresa Tam and Dr. Howard Njoo, led a news conference this morning to present different scenarios and outcomes projected over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. A presentation was provided, which is available at this link.

Short-Term Projections

Right now, Canada’s total case count is doubling every 3-5 days. By April 16, the government is anticipating between 22,580 and 31,850 reported cases across the country. Based on current fatality rates in Canada, the leading health officials say we can expect between 500 to 700 deaths by next Thursday. As of last night, Canada had 19,291 confirmed cases, with 435 deaths and 4,380 resolved.

Long-Term Projections

Various outcomes are projected, depending on the level of epidemic controls we take and follow:

  • The best-case scenario results in just 1% of Canadians infected (375,900), with 4,400 fatalities. Dr. Tam noted that this scenario is unlikely given the spread of the disease so far.
  • The worst case scenario, which would happen if Canada didn’t put any restrictions in place or lifted all restrictions today, would result in 80% of Canadians, some 30 million, contracting COVID-19, resulting in nearly 350,000 deaths.

Dr. Tam noted that if Canadians maintain their current efforts of reducing the spread, we “stand a really good chance” of staying in the green zone (see slide 14) and can expect an infection rate of 2.5% to 5% of Canadians (934,000 to 1.8 million), resulting in between 11,000 and 22,000 deaths.

Next Steps

Public health officials were cautious in their presenting their models, noting that they are “not a crystal ball” and are estimations at a point in time with the best available data. They did not provide an estimate of how long physical distancing measures must be in place for success.

If you have any questions about this update please let us know.

The Enterprise Team

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